Coronavirus- What's happening near you?

[CUSP82 Administrator Admin of the Month Dec 2014PEGym Hero Find all posts View Profile Close CUSP82]

Then have fun!

[BallsMahoney Senior Member Member of the Month Oct 2019 Find all posts View Profile Close BallsMahoney]

Fake crisis? A lot of Americans are out of work. Unemployment system is backed up. Americans are on lockdown because gov suggests it. Therefore, gov should financially support Americans during this time. America wouldn't be America, if it weren't for the Americans.

I highly doubt there is a fake crisis going on, but I'm certainly interested in reading why you suggest corona is fake, and why you actually think the government would pull such an exercise.

Maybe my wording was off. The crisis is now real, but its rooted in BS. I don't know why exactly the goverment would pull such a stunt, but the mortality rate is somewhere around .04%, or 1 of 25. However, there are many many that have covid but are asymptomatic and never tested, bringing the true mortality rate down much further. Its not much more lethal than the common flu. I suspect its probably some political gains or maybe trying to scare the population into surrendering their liberties. Not sure. But its a manufactured crisis. Thats what I meant from what I said above. Corona is a real illness, but its not as lethal as CNN would have you believe. People are getting laid off in hospitals all over the US due to low census, aka the hospitals are not overwhelmed. I just don't think the severity of covid warrants the level of shutdown.

I also don't expect you to agree with me. You are a free man, and can think the way you please. I chose to believe above. If you don't thats ok.

[madyogi Moderator Member of the Month April 2020PEGym Hero Find all posts View Profile Close madyogi]

People are getting laid off in hospitals all over the US due to low census, aka the hospitals are not overwhelmed.

Do you have a reference for this? I'm interested, because that would change my calculus a bit.

the mortality rate is somewhere around .04%, or 1 of 25.

Also, do you have a reference for this? The numbers I am looking at for the US - https://ncov2019.live/data/usa - show closer to .9%, and my assumption is there are many who have tested positive who will still die, so that is why I tend to believe the ultimate mortality will be over 1%, but I am serious about trying to make legit sense of this situation, so I welcome any serious rebuttals.

[BallsMahoney Senior Member Member of the Month Oct 2019 Find all posts View Profile Close BallsMahoney]

Do you have a reference for this? I'm interested, because that would change my calculus a bit.





Also, do you have a reference for this? The numbers I am looking at for the US - https://ncov2019.live/data/usa - show closer to .9%, and my assumption is there are many who have tested positive who will still die, so that is why I tend to believe the ultimate mortality will be over 1%, but I am serious about trying to make legit sense of this situation, so I welcome any serious rebuttals.

According to your website, 27k deaths / 622k infections is .06%, not .9.

I have 2 friends who work in hospitals, both saying the same thing. One is my best friend, best man at my wedding. His hospital is currently laying off workers due to what is called low census. The other is my former neighbor, we are good friends. His wife is a COO at a moderate sized hospital. They are also on low census and laying off employees. There are also independent video reporters who are interviewing hospital staff and reporting the same thing all over the country. Sure there are "hot spots" but even they arent filled. The normal flu hospitalizes around 700 thousand a year and kills close to 60 thousand, and doesn't overwhelm our hospitals.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ this is the global tracker. .06% (keep in mind this is positive tests). This is also the same .06 that your webiste shows. Not .9. There is a zero between the point and the actual number lol. In order for the percentage to be .9 that would mean 62,000 deaths out of 622,000 cases (more than double the current rate of mortality). So my guess is Covid will never reach close to that. Its been .0xx range for a while now. There was also a recent report of 30 pregnant women all asymptomatic who were tested in New York. 15 of them were positive for covid, but showed no symptoms. You could have it too, but not even be ill.

I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything. I'm just not going to believe everything I see on the news. There's also a hilarious gotcha video where MSNBC is showing footage of a NYC hosptial that is overrun. Well its actually an Italian hospital. They know this, but decided to put it onto the airwaves. Why would an honest network do such a thing? Probably revenue or who the hell knows.

[madyogi Moderator Member of the Month April 2020PEGym Hero Find all posts View Profile Close madyogi]

According to your website, 27k deaths / 622 infections is .06%, not .9.

Yes, that's right. I was looking at the wrong number. My fault.

I have 2 friends who work in hospitals, both saying the same thing. One is my best friend, best man at my wedding. His hospital is currently laying off workers due to what is called low census.

I'm aware of low census. My father is a physician at a local children's hospital, and I have worked at two different hospitals (in IT-related fields), so I have numerous friends who work in healthcare, and I haven't heard of any such layoffs here, but as I've said, the situation looks widely different across the country.

I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything. I'm just not going to believe everything I see on the news.

We are in complete agreement on this. I'm just trying to make the best sense of it I can.

[madyogi Moderator Member of the Month April 2020PEGym Hero Find all posts View Profile Close madyogi]

Another thing that's been annoying me about the "messages we get" from both right-wing and left-wing media, as well as from the current administration, is related to states and their authority to manage their own situation. Left-wing outlets will classically point fingers at governors for not "shutting everything down" (that includes our governor in Arkansas). Right-wing outlets will classically praise the right/authority of states to take responsibility for themselves and shirk federal authority. Then, we have the administration who seems to want it both ways. DJT was all about relying on states and businesses to make their own decisions early on in this deal, and more recently his messaging is that he has (and wants to use) the authority of the federal government to tell states and businesses when it's time to get back to it.

I see both sides. I mostly lean in the direction of states relying on their experts and making the best decisions for their citizens, but I also understand that commerce is "inter-state", so having every state on a different page is problematic. My frustration is that no one seems willing to present a nuanced case, and it's all just a shit show!

[Johnny D ModeratorPEGym Hero Find all posts View Profile Close Johnny D]

As testing increases and cases are seen, the CFR continues to be revised downward. I doubt very much that it's as low as the seasonal flu given the fact that this virus is novel and the very real effect that it has on those with underlying conditions. But I believe it's already proving to be low enough to show that economic desimation was unwarranted. More importantly, though, the orders to close business and kill economies were given when there wasn't enough meaningful data to base those decisions on. Now, as cases and fatality numbers are starting to look better, you're not gonna hear politicians say, "Looks like we over-reacted. Sorry". Instead they'll say things like Cuomo says, "We're through the worst of it". As though we all just needed to hold on tight while a tornado passed by or something. Newsom will do the same thing.

Try to ignore DJT if you can. He's a blowhard who spends 99% of his energy looking for someone to point a finger at. When it serves him well, the states should make their own decisions. When it serves him well, they governors all have to do what he says. One day Fauci is the guy we should listen to, the next day he should be fired. Etc...

[BallsMahoney Senior Member Member of the Month Oct 2019 Find all posts View Profile Close BallsMahoney]

Well said Johnny D.

[Pegasus AdministratorPE Gym EditorPEGym Hero ☺ Admin of the Month Mar 2015 Find all posts View Profile Close Pegasus]

Have not seen anything convincing that the cfr is under 1% .
Have seen convincing that it is over 1%.
If no action had been taking this very catching virus would have infected a large % of the population .
Do the math .

[Pegasus AdministratorPE Gym EditorPEGym Hero ☺ Admin of the Month Mar 2015 Find all posts View Profile Close Pegasus]

Look ummm guys I didn't think I would have to go to explain this . Can you try to think things through a little more before you post .
Here is some numbers

https://www.pegym.com/forums/image/p...BJRU5ErkJggg==Australia	6,447	3,686	63
https://www.pegym.com/forums/image/p...BJRU5ErkJggg==United States	641,919	52,196	28,399

Ok so the first number is the number that have caught the virus the second is the number that have recovered and the third the number of deaths .
So the deaths are a small % of the number that have caught the virus however quite obviously that leaves 2 groups those that have recovered and those that have not .
Among those that that have not recovered some will obviously die .
Now if you divide those recovered by those dead you will get a raw cfr but I caution you against doing that

[Pegasus AdministratorPE Gym EditorPEGym Hero ☺ Admin of the Month Mar 2015 Find all posts View Profile Close Pegasus]

If you did use raw cfr (remember i said don't ) it would indicate you guys got a lot to learn from other countries .

[Going411x7 Senior Member Find all posts View Profile Close Going411x7]

If you did use raw cfr (remember i said don't ) it would indicate you guys got a lot to learn from other countries .

They sure do, Peg. I rely on Dr. Fauci, who is the U.S. expert on infectious diseases. He has said time and again that this disease is much more infectious than the flu and that it will be around until they create a vaccine. That takes us into 2021 and beyond. Wait six months, men, and THEN look at the stats and compare this virus to the flu viruses.

T

[Pegasus AdministratorPE Gym EditorPEGym Hero ☺ Admin of the Month Mar 2015 Find all posts View Profile Close Pegasus]

We don't go to such efforts to control flu . If this virus had been left to run it'ss own course without intervention there would be a lot more deaths ;simply because there would be a lot more infections

[CUSP82 Administrator Admin of the Month Dec 2014PEGym Hero Find all posts View Profile Close CUSP82]

We don't go to such efforts to control flu . If this virus had been left to run it'ss own course without intervention there would be a lot more deaths ;simply because there would be a lot more infections

Just like the flu. We have far more deaths from the flu and we actually have a vaccine for it. Did we ever shut down a country for a flu epidemic when there were no vaccines and 100,00 lives would be lost on a bad year?

[CUSP82 Administrator Admin of the Month Dec 2014PEGym Hero Find all posts View Profile Close CUSP82]

Look ummm guys I didn't think I would have to go to explain this . Can you try to think things through a little more before you post .
Here is some numbers

https://www.pegym.com/forums/image/p...BJRU5ErkJggg==Australia	6,447	3,686	63
https://www.pegym.com/forums/image/p...BJRU5ErkJggg==United States	641,919	52,196	28,399

Ok so the first number is the number that have caught the virus the second is the number that have recovered and the third the number of deaths .
So the deaths are a small % of the number that have caught the virus however quite obviously that leaves 2 groups those that have recovered and those that have not .
Among those that that have not recovered some will obviously die .
Now if you divide those recovered by those dead you will get a raw cfr but I caution you against doing that

You are not including the millions who got it, never knew they had it and were never tested.