Coronavirus- What's happening near you?

[Johnny D ModeratorPEGym Hero Find all posts View Profile Close Johnny D]

Many people will die from C19 - quite probably at a much higher rate than the flu.
More would have died if we weren't all forcibly sequestered - though it's now clear that it wouldn't have been anywhere near as many as a "they" said it would be.

I don't know anyone who would dispute those two claims yet. But the fundamental breakdown is that we were presented with a false dichotomy: Do nothing and many people die or; Collapse the economy and save lives. There was no measured approach based on a study of meaningful data, weighing the cost of people dying against the cost of decimated economy. Jobless claims in the US are nearing 22M in a single month and the effects of these shutdowns are far-reaching and will have very serious long-term consequences that will require years to recover from. The governors and mayors will say, "We're all in this together guys so, I know you're unemployed and can't pay rent now but, 'we' saved lives and I made that happen so vote for me again".

[Jay1983 Senior MemberMember of the Month Apr 2014, Sept 2016 Find all posts View Profile Close Jay1983]

Trump gets my vote regardless. Long live the republic!

[Johnny D ModeratorPEGym Hero Find all posts View Profile Close Johnny D]

Fauci is a smart man and he knows infectious diseases very well. But he's not an economist and doesn't know how to weigh the potential death of 100K or 200K people against decimating an economy. When he says that he advised Trump to recommend continued social isolation, he's doing so out of a single mandate - prevent the spread of a virus. The federal, state, and local leaders should be taking his estimates and considering them in context. It's not Fauci's responsibility or expertise to say whether economic shutdown is a prudent course of action and the fact that politicians would use his recommendation to do so to justify their orders is so laughably transparent.

[BallsMahoney Senior Member Member of the Month Oct 2019 Find all posts View Profile Close BallsMahoney]

Among those that that have not recovered some will obviously die .

Yes they will, and more will also become infected and continue to hold the same .06% mortality rate world wide. This rate does not factor in the unknown (likely millions) that have never been tested and are asymptomatic but do in fact have covid.

Covid kills .06% of known infected people. Thats not very high. Not enough to warrant whats happening economically.

[madyogi Moderator Member of the Month April 2020PEGym Hero Find all posts View Profile Close madyogi]

Yes they will, and more will also become infected and continue to hold the same .06% mortality rate world wide. This rate does not factor in the unknown (likely millions) that have never been tested and are asymptomatic but do in fact have covid.

Covid kills .06% of known infected people. Thats not very high. Not enough to warrant whats happening economically.

I still need you to explain your math to me, Balls.

If we want to know what percent 40 is of 200, we would do ( 40 / 200 ) * 100. This yields 20%.

I did the math for US cases and global cases on CUSP's thread earlier. And not2big has proposed 3.5m as a reasonable total case number, which still puts the mortality rate ~1%.

Please explain how you are coming up with .06%.

[madyogi Moderator Member of the Month April 2020PEGym Hero Find all posts View Profile Close madyogi]

Fauci is a smart man and he knows infectious diseases very well. But he's not an economist and doesn't know how to weigh the potential death of 100K or 200K people against decimating an economy. When he says that he advised Trump to recommend continued social isolation, he's doing so out of a single mandate - prevent the spread of a virus. The federal, state, and local leaders should be taking his estimates and considering them in context. It's not Fauci's responsibility or expertise to say whether economic shutdown is a prudent course of action and the fact that politicians would use his recommendation to do so to justify their orders is so laughably transparent.

I generally agree with this. Reasonable people can certainly disagree regarding the tradeoffs, but it's not like DJT would bow to Fauci just because .... DJT is all in for his own image and interests.

[madyogi Moderator Member of the Month April 2020PEGym Hero Find all posts View Profile Close madyogi]

I will say in Arkansas, things seem to be going pretty well, which validates the "Let the states listen to their folks and do what they need to do" narrative. We are doing basic social distancing, and all social gatherings of more than 10 are shut down, with the recommendation of wearing a mask when social distancing isn't practical. Schools are closed through the end of the year (which seems a bit strong), but restaurants are open for delivery/takeout, Home Depot is open, Target is open, PetCo is open, etc, and we can drive around as needed.

We have 1800 confirmed cases, with 37 deaths. That's a tad over 2% if you do the math ....

[Pegasus AdministratorPE Gym EditorPEGym Hero ☺ Admin of the Month Mar 2015 Find all posts View Profile Close Pegasus]

You are not including the millions who got it, never knew they had it and were never tested.

Deaths on cruise ships where everyone was tested circa 2% .
The average age is older on the other hand they got the best first world non overwhealmed care

[Pegasus AdministratorPE Gym EditorPEGym Hero ☺ Admin of the Month Mar 2015 Find all posts View Profile Close Pegasus]

I will say in Arkansas, things seem to be going pretty well, which validates the "Let the states listen to their folks and do what they need to do" narrative. We are doing basic social distancing, and all social gatherings of more than 10 are shut down, with the recommendation of wearing a mask when social distancing isn't practical. Schools are closed through the end of the year (which seems a bit strong), but restaurants are open for delivery/takeout, Home Depot is open, Target is open, PetCo is open, etc, and we can drive around as needed.

We have 1800 confirmed cases, with 37 deaths. That's a tad over 2% if you do the math ....

How many of those 1800 cases are fully recoverd ? Among those that are not fully recovered some will die .
Don't get me wrong I think a 2% odd death rate and perhaps less is achievable with good care . It;s just that the US doesn't seem to be achieving that rate .

[Pegasus AdministratorPE Gym EditorPEGym Hero ☺ Admin of the Month Mar 2015 Find all posts View Profile Close Pegasus]

Yes they will, and more will also become infected and continue to hold the same .06% mortality rate world wide. This rate does not factor in the unknown (likely millions) that have never been tested and are asymptomatic but do in fact have covid.

Covid kills .06% of known infected people. Thats not very high. Not enough to warrant whats happening economically.

You are a smart guy so you are deliberately misthinking this, which there is no way for me to get around .

I don't mind explaining things but there is a limit to stupid; there is no limit to deliberate misthinking .

I will leave members to look at my post 295 this thread then read this many of them could use a good laugh.

[Pegasus AdministratorPE Gym EditorPEGym Hero ☺ Admin of the Month Mar 2015 Find all posts View Profile Close Pegasus]

Here is a question how many US deaths is acceptable to improve the economy?

[Jay1983 Senior MemberMember of the Month Apr 2014, Sept 2016 Find all posts View Profile Close Jay1983]

[madyogi Moderator Member of the Month April 2020PEGym Hero Find all posts View Profile Close madyogi]

How many of those 1800 cases are fully recoverd ? Among those that are not fully recovered some will die .
Don't get me wrong I think a 2% odd death rate and perhaps less is achievable with good care . It;s just that the US doesn't seem to be achieving that rate .

Agreed. The best numbers I can find say there are about 500 recoveries, so yes, more of the diagnosed will die. And the risk of health system overrun is real, at least in some places. That's what caused Italy's rate to climb so high (>10%). Not to say we're at that point anywhere in states at the moment, but demanding we "step on the gas" could very well put us in that spot, at least in certain highly populated areas. We'll see.

[madyogi Moderator Member of the Month April 2020PEGym Hero Find all posts View Profile Close madyogi]

You are a smart guy so you are deliberately misthinking this, which there is no way for me to get around .

I don't mind explaining things but there is a limit to stupid; there is no limit to deliberate misthinking .

I will leave members to look at my post 295 this thread then read this many of them could use a good laugh.

Hehehe. I like Balls, and I agree he's smart, but I still want to hear him explain the math that gets him to .06% mortality ... Otherwise, I'll keep busting his balls

[Pegasus AdministratorPE Gym EditorPEGym Hero ☺ Admin of the Month Mar 2015 Find all posts View Profile Close Pegasus]

Hehehe. I like Balls, and I agree he's smart, but I still want to hear him explain the math that gets him to .06% mortality ... Otherwise, I'll keep busting his balls

Good luck like I said no limit.